The Impact of Urban Expansion on Peri-Urban Agriculture, Hydrometeorology, Food Security and Human Health in East and West Africa: Linking Social Science to Earth Observations and Earth System Modeling
Jessica L McCarty, NASA Ames Research Center, jessica.mccarty@nasa.gov (Presenter)
Christopher Hain, NASA MSFC, christopher.hain@nasa.gov
Molly Elizabeth Brown, University of Maryland, mbrown52@umd.edu
Kathryn Grace, University of Minnesota, klgrace@umn.edu
Andrew White, University of Alabama, Huntsville, andrew.t.white@nasa.gov
Naaborle Sackeyfio, Miami University, sackeyn@miamioh.edu
Walid Ouaret, University of Maryland, wouaret@umd.edu
Rahayu Adzhar, University of Maryland, rahayu@umd.edu
Maryam Zamanialaei, University of California, Berkeley, zamanialaeim@berkeley.edu
This NASA IDS project brings together climate modeling, remote sensing and geospatial data and methods, and social science expertise to understand how urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) contribute to improved food security, reduced hydrometeorological hazards, and water quality in a changing climate and changing landscapes. By capturing and predicting the current and future changes of green space across four African cities - Ouagadougou, Kigali, Addis Ababa, and Nairobi - these potential UPA sites are then connected to locale-specific population and development scenarios. To map current and near-future (~ 2035) changes in these urban areas, we used moderate- to coarse-resolution imagery and products within the TerrSet model to predict future land-cover/land-use change. At the 500 m and 1 km spatial resolutions, the results showed little change between 2003 and 2019 and therefore predicted little change in the near term. A systematic review of Web of Science food gaps in how LCLUC modeling has been developed and/or applied in the African continent – limiting applicability for UPA landscapes but also creating technology opportunities to improve coupled landscape-climate modeling. Through combined land-cover/land-use change and climate modeling and experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT), we can ultimately determine how vegetated areas affect the local and regional hydrometeorology and urban heat island for these important African cities. Currently, we are using multilevel models to connect yield outcomes and household-level data in Burkina Faso, Rwanda, Ethiopia, and Kenya to determine the changing food security of urban, peri-urban, and rural communities near Ouagadougou, Kigali, Addis Ababa, and Nairobi. From there, we will then understand how children’s health is likely to change in the coming decade from these modeled urbanization processes. Finally, results are compared with published African Union sustainable development goals and assessments, and qualitatively assessed by a project team member specializing in African political ecology and political economy studies.
Poster: Poster_McCarty_1-25_68_35.pdf
Poster Location ID: 1-25
Presentation Type: Poster
Session: Poster Session 1
Session Date: Tue (May 9) 5:00-7:00 PM
CCE Program: Other