Forewarning Ecosystem Collapse from Self-Organized Coral Reef Patterning using Remote Sensing and Computational Biology
Haiwei Xi, University of Miami, haiwei.xi@miami.edu (Presenter)
Xiaoli Dong, University of California Davis, xldong@ucdavis.edu
Ved Chirayath, University of Miami, ved@miami.edu
Art Gleason, University of Miami, agleason@miami.edu
Daniel Otis, University Of South Florida, dotis@mail.usf.edu
Sam Purkis, University of Miami, spurkis@rsmas.miami.edu
One goal in MarineVERSE is to use coral reefs as a model biome to investigate mechanisms of biotic spatial self-organization. Coral reefs are diverse and valuable ecosystems. Over the last four decades, however, half of Earth’s reefs have died. Thermal stress bears prime responsibility. The so-called “reef crisis” is a symptom of a planet that is slowly, inexorably overheating. Reefs are facing transitions that are potentially catastrophically abrupt and irreversible. When a critical threshold of environmental condition is passed, reefs might shift abruptly from a vibrant and biodiverse state, to one which is moribund and lacking in variety of species. Such shifts have real human consequences. More than one billion people rely on coral reefs for protein, reefs protect coastlines from storms and tsunami, and they yield bioactive molecules for new medicines. Therefore, identifying reliable signals of imminent catastrophic changes in coral reefs, a globally important ecosystem type, is critical for anticipating and mitigating long-term changes. For spatially self-organized ecosystems, such as reefs, critical transitions are closely associated with changes of spatial patterns in a predictable way, under increasing environmental stress before approaching a potential tipping point. As such, spatial patterns can be employed as early-warning signals of ecosystem collapse. Here, we use remote sensing imageries of reefs globally to quantify their spatial patterning and construct reactive-diffusion models of reef pattern formation to identify the environmental configurations that induce biotic spatial self-organization. Even though corals are smaller than satellite pixels and therefore cannot be sensed directly from orbit, our results suggest that the patterns that reefs build proxy the environmental conditions that they endure, and that ecosystem stress and self-organization are directly related. This work is also widely applicable to other ecosystems. By quantifying fundamental spatial signatures of life, results from this project have implications for astrobiology and the search for life beyond Earth.
Associated Project(s):
Poster Location ID: 2-50
Presentation Type: Poster
Session: Poster Session 2
Session Date: Wed (May 10) 5:15-7:15 PM
CCE Program: BDEC