Exploring Uncertain Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Sink and its Implications for Energy Market Futures in the 21st Century
Min Chen, University of Wisconsin-Madison, mchen392@wisc.edu (Presenter)
Han Qiu, University of Wisconsin-Madison, hqiu54@wisc.edu
The terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink is a critical element in regulating atmospheric CO2 concentrations and, therefore, plays a crucial role in climate change mitigation policy-making. However, projections of this metric remain highly uncertain due to the limitations of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) used to estimate it. While integrated assessment models such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) are widely used to assess interactions between climate and human systems, they often overlook these uncertainties in the terrestrial carbon cycle.
To address this gap, this study examines the potential impact of uncertainty in projections of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink on energy consumption and supply profiles in the 21st century under the 1.5 oC above pre-industrial scenario. Specifically, we used outputs from seven TBMs from the TRENDY global carbon cycle modeling project to constrain the terrestrial carbon cycling process in GCAM and compared the GCAM-projected energy market profiles constrained by different TBMs.
Our findings reveal a high sensitivity of future global and regional energy supply and consumption to terrestrial carbon sink estimates under mitigation policies. These results highlight the need to harmonize estimations of the ecological carbon sink and underscore the socioeconomic significance of accurate projections of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink in informing climate change mitigation policies. This study provides valuable insights into the complex interactions between climate and energy systems, emphasizing the need for integrated modeling approaches to address the uncertainties in the terrestrial carbon cycle.
Associated Project(s):
Poster Location ID: 2-32
Presentation Type: Poster
Session: Poster Session 2
Session Date: Wed (May 10) 5:15-7:15 PM
CCE Program: TE