Quantifying Soybean Expansion in South America and Modeling Socioeconomic Drivers
Xiao-Peng Song, University of Maryland, xpsong@umd.edu (Presenter)
Yu Xin, University of Maryland, yuxin@terpmail.umd.edu
LAIXIANG SUN, University of Maryland, lsun123@umd.edu
Matthew Hansen, University of Maryland, mhansen@umd.edu
A prominent goal of policies mitigating climate change and biodiversity loss is to achieve zero deforestation in the global supply chain of key commodities, such as palm oil and soybean. However, the extent, dynamics and underlying drivers of deforestation driven by commodity expansion are largely unknown. In this project, we mapped annual soybean expansion in South America between 2000 and 2019 by combining satellite observations and sample field data. We employed a spatial panel modeling approach to assess the driving forces of soybean expansion in natural forests. From 2000 to 2019, the area cultivated with soybeans over South America more than doubled, from 26.4 Mha to 55.1 Mha. The most rapid expansion occurred in the Brazilian Amazon, where soybean area increased more than tenfold, from 0.4 Mha to 4.6 Mha. Most soybean expansion over the continent occurred on pastures originally converted from natural vegetation for cattle production. Soybean-driven deforestation was concentrated at the active frontiers, nearly half located in the Brazilian Cerrado. Our modeling analysis indicated that the decrease in soybean expansion into natural forests in the Brazilian Amazon after 2006 was caused by the combined effects of soybean price fluctuations and the implementation of the Amazon Soy Moratorium. Soybean expansion in the Cerrado is 3-8 times higher than a counterfactual control in the Brazilian Amazon. Therefore, immediate action, such as expanding the Moratorium to the Cerrado, is needed to safeguard critical ecosystem services in the Cerrado and other ecosystems.
Poster: Poster_Song_1-2_138_35.pdf
Associated Project(s):
Poster Location ID: 1-2
Presentation Type: Poster
Session: Poster Session 1
Session Date: Tue (May 9) 5:00-7:00 PM
CCE Program: LCLUC