A Global Surveillance System for Fusarium wilt in a changing climate by integrating remote sensing and aerosol transport modeling
Rocio Calderon, Plant Pathology and Plant-Microbe Biology Section, Cornell AgriTech, Cornell University, Geneva NY, USA, mc2283@cornell.edu (Presenter)
Hannah K. Brodsky, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future, Cornell University, Ithaca NY, USA, hkb35@cornell.edu
Chad Vosburg, Department of Plant Pathology and Environmental Microbiology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park PA, USA, cvv5156@psu.edu
Jaclyn A. Eller, Plant Pathology and Plant-Microbe Biology Section, Cornell AgriTech, Cornell University, Geneva NY, USA, je298@cornell.edu
Andrew D. Miles, Department of Plant Pathology and Environmental Microbiology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park PA, USA, ajm7169@psu.edu
Natalie Mahowald, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future, Cornell University, Ithaca NY, USA, mahowald@cornell.edu
Sharifa G. Crandall, Department of Plant Pathology and Environmental Microbiology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park PA, USA, sgcrandall@psu.edu
Ryan Pavlick, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena CA, USA, ryan.p.pavlick@jpl.nasa.gov
Kaitlin M. Gold, Plant Pathology and Plant-Microbe Biology Section, Cornell AgriTech, Cornell University, Geneva NY, USA, kg557@cornell.edu
Fusarium oxysporum (Fo) is a ubiquitous soilborne fungus that can cause Fusarium Wilt (FW) in 100+ crops. Uncertainties in aspects of its epidemiology and a lack of global distribution data have historically challenged monitoring and containment efforts. Our NASA Interdisciplinary Sciences project seeks to address this need by integrating remote sensing, aerosol transport modeling, and comparative genomics to build a global disease surveillance system for FW incidence and Fo dispersal risk in aerosolized agricultural dust under various climate change scenarios. As foundation, we released an interactive, global web map documenting 4500+ FW incidences reported in peer-reviewed literature. Here, we developed a global susceptibility assessment that integrates all three aspects of the disease triangle. We identified agricultural production zones conducive to FW, noting subsets capable of serving as dust sources, by overlapping the MODIS Deep Blue algorithm with a Landsat-based cropland product. We then restricted this assessment to only regions with reported Fo in the past 30 years. Conducive disease environment was modeled using multiple satellite-derived products with species distribution modeling. The CAM6-MIMI climate model was modified to incorporate spore traits that influence dispersal and atmospheric survival, and was parameterized using the 2020 Godzilla dust event. We found modeling evidence of transoceanic and intercontinental atmospheric transport of viable Fo spores and offered a danger index for Fo spore deposition on susceptible agricultural zones. The main long-distance transport of viable spores and the highest danger for deposition on cropland are between the regions of Eurasia, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. This integrated approach to disease surveillance provides key insights about FW epidemiology and drivers for current and future FW distribution, while increasing our knowledge of the capacity of remote sensing and earth system modeling to detect, quantify and inform risk of biotic stress.
Poster: Poster_Calderon_3-27_104_35.pdf
Associated Project(s):
Poster Location ID: 3-27
Presentation Type: Poster
Session: Poster Session 3
Session Date: Thu (May 11) 3:00-5:00 PM
CCE Program: BDEC